澳洲绿卡：“澳洲买房梦”正慢慢破灭The slow death of the housing dreamRobert Harley
April 5, 2012
BIS Shrapnel的Robert Mellor认为，过去10年来的房产每年升值9-10%的美好时光不再，今后的年增值将是5-6%。
“At the national level, the ratio of dwelling prices to income hasfallen over the past year, and is below the average of the past decade, while rentalyields have begun to pick up, assisted by stronger rental growth as well aslower prices,” reported the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Review.
When Rebecca Pietrzak, a 26-year- old Sydneysider, boughtan apartment last weekend she joined a dwindling cohort of Australians. Why?Because fewer and fewer of us are buying a home.
In 2002 and againin 2003, more than 600,000houses and apartments changed hands according to RP Data. During the FirstHome Owner Boost frenzy of 2009, the figure topped 500,000. Last year it was just 370,000, the lowest since early1997.
New house sales have collapsed; housing credit growth hasslowed; renovations are being postponed; and prices have started to slide.
In the year to March 31 2012, aggregate values dropped 4.4% in the year, 2.5% outsidethe capitals and more than 5% in Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, and Brisbane.
Quinn says the mood changed, with the out-of-cycle risein mortgage rates. “In all of myexperience, I have not seen such a shift in sentiment,” he says.
Veteran analyst, and managing director of BIS Shrapnel,Robert Mellor says that future price growth will be a lot less than in thepast.
“The last boom was too great . . . we are fully valued,”he says. “The 9-10% annual gains of the past will turn into long-term gains of 5-6% a year.”
Cities vary. Sydney,Perth and Brisbane are at the top of the BIS outlook and could show 15% gains over the next 5 years. Inother cities, little gain is likely.