澳洲绿卡：“澳洲买房梦”正慢慢破灭The slow death of the housing dreamRobert Harley
April 5, 2012
2002和2003年，澳洲房屋销售量高达60万套，而2011年已经减少到37万套，为1997年来的历史新低；即使在2009年的购房热潮中，澳洲的年房屋销售量才超过50万套。
澳洲市场上的房屋，30%是投资房。
BIS Shrapnel的Robert Mellor认为，过去10年来的房产每年升值9-10%的美好时光不再，今后的年增值将是5-6%。
RBA对澳洲房地产的描述是“正在企稳”，而不是2011年的“疲软”。
RBA认为，从全澳洲来看，房价/收入比在2011年得到改善，现在已经低于过去10年的平均水平；出租回报率得以提高。
“At the national level, the ratio of dwelling prices to income hasfallen over the past year, and is below the average of the past decade, while rentalyields have begun to pick up, assisted by stronger rental growth as well aslower prices,” reported the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Review.
When Rebecca Pietrzak, a 26-year- old Sydneysider, boughtan apartment last weekend she joined a dwindling cohort of Australians. Why?Because fewer and fewer of us are buying a home.
In 2002 and againin 2003, more than 600,000houses and apartments changed hands according to RP Data. During the FirstHome Owner Boost frenzy of 2009, the figure topped 500,000. Last year it was just 370,000, the lowest since early1997.
New house sales have collapsed; housing credit growth hasslowed; renovations are being postponed; and prices have started to slide.
In the year to March 31 2012, aggregate values dropped 4.4% in the year, 2.5% outsidethe capitals and more than 5% in Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, and Brisbane.
Quinn says the mood changed, with the out-of-cycle risein mortgage rates. “In all of myexperience, I have not seen such a shift in sentiment,” he says.
Veteran analyst, and managing director of BIS Shrapnel,Robert Mellor says that future price growth will be a lot less than in thepast.
“The last boom was too great . . . we are fully valued,”he says. “The 9-10% annual gains of the past will turn into long-term gains of 5-6% a year.”
Cities vary. Sydney,Perth and Brisbane are at the top of the BIS outlook and could show 15% gains over the next 5 years. Inother cities, little gain is likely.
编辑：澳洲小美妞
